State Analysis: Missouri

With this blog, I am beginning a state-by-state analysis to see towards which party various states are trending and where the potential battle grounds exist. For this analysis, I will have 6 categories of states: Strong Republican, Strong Democrat, Moderate Republican, Moderate Democrat, Swing State, and Split State. "Strong" states are those which a party has very little opposition in. "Moderate" states are those that tend towards one party, but can still be won by the other if a lot of work is done. "Swing" states are those which determine the elections, because no party truly has an on-going edge there. Split states are those that tend towards one party on Presidential races, but tend to elect members of the opposite party for house or Senate races.

Since it is known as the "Bell Weather" State, I felt that Missouri would be a good state to begin with. Generally speaking, it tends to be a fairly close state, but it has trended somewhat Republican in the last decade.

In the Presidential elections of 2000, 2004, and 2008, it has stayed in the Republican column by the following margins: 50.4%/47.1%, 53.6%/46.4%, & 50.1%/49.9%.

In the Senate elections, it has fluctuated somewhat while remaining very close. Democrats won in 2000: 50.4%/48.4%. The Republicans then won the next two elections: 2002-49.8%/48.7% & 2004-56%/42.8%. The Democrats won again in 2006-49.6%/47.3%.

The House elections have shown a more permanent shift. There are currently 9 House seats allotted to Missouri. In 2000, Democrats won a 5/4 majority of the seats. This changed to 5/4 seat majority for Republicans in 2002 and has remained in that position for 2004, 2006, and 2008.

I would not say that this is a state that Republicans can take for granted, because their margins here are not huge. But generally speaking here they still have the edge. Therefore I categorize this state as "Moderate Republican".