Monday, October 12, 2009

State Analysis: Alabama

Alabama is, for the most part, a solidly Republican state. Its location in the deep south no doubt contributes much to its staunch conservatism. However, there still are opportunities for the GOP to advance here. In the Presidential and Senatorial races, the GOP continues to have a solid dominance on the elections, so we will focus on the races for the House of Representatives.

House Districts 1 & 4 have been solidly Republican for the last several cycles and will most likely continue to be.

House Districts 3 & 6 have been in Republican hands for awhile, but may need some shoring up. District 3 was a solidly Republican in 2004 and 2006, but became a much closer race (53% to 47%) during the 2008 election. District 6 has had unopposed Republican representation for the past 3 election cycles, and for this reason the GOP must make certain that they are not taking this district for granted.

House Districts 2 & 5 are possible pick-ups for the GOP in the 2010 election. District 2 had been solidly Republican in 2004 and 2006 and even voted for John McCain in 2008. However a Democrat managed to win this house seat in a nearly 50/50 election during 2008. This is a seat that the GOP would have a strong chance to regain. District 5 is another opportunity for the GOP. This district had unopposed Democrat representation in 2004 and 2006, but the Republican was able to gain 48% of the vote in 2008 making this district a potential pick-up for the GOP in 2010.

House District 7 is the wild-card of the group, but the Democrats still have the advantage here. The last two-party race here was in 2004 with the GOP candidate pulling only 25% of the vote (with John Kerry winning 64% of the vote in the Presidential race). In the last two election cycles, the Democrat has run unopposed. However, the incumbent Democrat is retiring from the seat giving the GOP a slight shot at taking the seat. This district will be a difficult one for the GOP, but it is one which they should explore the possibilities in.

Overall, Alabama gives the GOP a good chance at gaining 2 seats and maybe a shot at a third.

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